GFZ German research centre for geo sciences

Section 2.6: Seismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics

The goal of the section is to achieve progress beyond the state-of-the-art, in all steps leading to an improved assessment of probabilistic seismic hazards.

  • We analyze the stability of sub-surface fracture systems for energy technologies and carry out field experiments on fracture propagation and fault activation (Contact Arno Zang).

  • We develop 4D stress model workflows for inter- and intraplate earthquake cycles and radioactive waste repositories and manage the World Stress Map project (Contact Oliver Heidbach).

  • We develop site-specific, physics-based, and data-driven ground-shaking models for the improvement of seismic building codes (Contact Dino Bindi).

  • We compute seismic hazard assessments based on a consistent probabilistic treatment of all input data and the transparent evaluation of epistemic uncertainties (Contact Graeme Weatherill).

  • We develop methods to test the components and results of seismic hazard and risk models (ContactDanijel Schorlemmer)

  • We develop dynamic exposure models (Contact Danijel Schorlemmer) and contribute to integrated risk and early warning developments in urban areas (Contact Marco Pilz).

Last Publications

Bindi D, Zaccarelli R, Cotton F, Weatherill G, Reddy Kotha S (2023) Source Scaling and Ground‐Motion Variability along the East Anatolian Fault. The Seismic Record 3(4): 311-321.

Gómez Zapata JC, Pittore M, Brinckmann N, Lizarazo-Marriaga J, Medina S, Tarque N, Cotton F (2023) Scenario-based multi-risk assessment from existing single-hazard vulnerability models. An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 23(6): 2203-2228.

Ji Y, Zhang W, Hofmann H, Chen Y, Kluge C, Zang A, Zimmermann G (2023) Modelling of fluid pressure migration in a pressure sensitive fault zone subject to cyclic injection and implications for injection-induced seismicity. Geophysical Journal International 232(3): 1655-1667.

Lilienkamp H, Bossu R, Cotton F, Finazzi F, Landès M, Weatherill G, von Specht S (2023) Utilization of Crowdsourced Felt Reports to Distinguish High‐Impact from Low‐Impact Earthquakes Globally within Minutes of an Event. The Seismic Record 3(1): 29-36.

Schneider M, Cotton F, Schweizer P-J (2023) Criteria-based visualization design for hazard maps. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 23: 2505-2521.

Weatherill G, Crowley H, Roullé A, Tourlière B, Lemoine A, Gracianne C, Kotha SR, Cotton F (2023) Modelling site response at regional scale for the 2020 European Seismic Risk Model (ESRM20). Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering 21(2): 665-714.

Ziegler MO, Heidbach O (2023) Bayesian Quantification and Reduction of Uncertainties in 3D Geomechanical-Numerical Models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 128(1): e2022JB024855.

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