Section 2.6: Seismic Hazard and Risk Dynamics

The goal of the section is to achieve progress beyond the state-of-the-art, in all steps leading to an improved assessment of probabilistic seismic hazards.

  • We analyze the stability of sub-surface fracture systems for energy technologies and carry out field experiments on fracture propagation and fault activation (Contact Arno Zang).

  • We develop 4D stress model workflows for inter- and intraplate earthquake cycles and radioactive waste repositories and manage the World Stress Map project (Contact Oliver Heidbach).

  • We develop site-specific, physics-based, and data-driven ground-shaking models for the improvement of seismic building codes (Contact Dino Bindi).

  • We compute seismic hazard assessments based on a consistent probabilistic treatment of all input data and the transparent evaluation of epistemic uncertainties (Contact Graeme Weatherill).

  • We develop methods to test the components and results of seismic hazard and risk models (ContactDanijel Schorlemmer)

  • We develop dynamic exposure models (Contact Danijel Schorlemmer) and contribute to integrated risk and early warning developments in urban areas (Contact Marco Pilz).

Last Publications

Zhu, C., Cotton, F., Kawase, H., Eeri, M., Nakano, K. (2022 online): How well can we predict earthquake site response so far? Machine learning vs physics-based modeling. - Earthquake Spectra.

Nievas, C., Pilz, M., Prehn, K., Schorlemmer, D., Weatherill, G., Cotton, F. (2022): Calculating earthquake damage building by building: the case of the city of Cologne, Germany. - Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 20, 1519-1565.

Lilienkamp, H., von Specht, S., Weatherill, G., Caire, G., Cotton, F. (2022): Ground-Motion Modeling as an Image Processing Task: Introducing a Neural Network Based, Fully Data-Driven, and Nonergodic Approach. - Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 112, 3, 1565-1582.

Ji, Y., Hofmann, H., Duan, K., Zang, A. (2022): Laboratory experiments on fault behavior towards better understanding of injection-induced seismicity in geoenergy systems. - Earth-Science Reviews, 226, 103916.

Ahlers, S., Röckel, L., Hergert, T., Reiter, K., Heidbach, O., Henk, A., Müller, B., Morawietz, S., Scheck-Wenderoth, M., Anikiev, D. (2022): The crustal stress field of Germany: a refined prediction. - Geothermal Energy, 10, 10.

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