Our Research Program 2021-2027

Subtopic 3.2 "Temporal variations and the late stage before catastrophic events"

Laboratory and field observations show that the transition from the slow buildup in geodynamic loading to extreme release events occurs as a transient processin which the onset of deformation is accompanied by changes in material properties. The focus of this subtopic is on a holistic investigation of temporal variations (transient phases) using laboratory experiments, modeling, and field observations over local, regional, and global scales. This involves understanding and modeling the fundamental physical processes that control temporal variations, requiring new monitoring approaches in order to separate long-term, steady-state behavior from short-term signals, to reduce the signal-to-noise ratio of the observables, and to identify emerging threats.

Three key themes are central to Subtopic 3.2:

Application of technological advances in observational methods in geodes, seismology, airborne observational systems and analytical techniques. This approach resolves temporal variationsand processes at unprecedented precision allowing even low-magnitude changes to be observed.

Evaluate, focus and further extend the observational infrastructure of monitoring networks and extending the laboratory capabilities is one of our main tasks. A strong emphasis in the experimental work and observational efforts is placed on the detection of transient preparatory phase phenomena. We expand multi-parameter observations on short-time scales in areas where transient episodes are expected or observed.

Application of new signal processing and data-mining techniques incorporates methodological advances and contributes to the rapid identification of transients and their interactions in the Earth’s crust. Such techniques include machine and deep learning methods being applied to large datasets.

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