Seismic hazard model is a kind of forecast. Scientific forecasts should be rou-tinely evaluated for its accuracy so the improvement can be located. As a part-ner project of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM), we develop methods for evaluating the forecasts of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Our works involve both the holistic approach (i.e., comparing the forecasted seismic hazard with observed ground motion frequency) and the component-wise approach (i.e., evaluating seismicity models and ground-motion models). Our focuses are:
Similarity of Ground-Motion Models | Sammon plot of the similarity of 10 ground-motion models based on the symmetrised KL divergence. The evaluation is based on near-field New Zealand strong motion data. Triangle: NGA-West2 models; Star: NGA models; Circle: Native New Zealand models.
Publications / Results