Policy briefs

The key outcomes of System-Risk research are summarized in two policy briefing documents which explain how advanced approaches and methods for flood risk management allow for a more comprehensive understanding of risk (System Risk_Briefing_systems_perspective.pdf) and the benefits for flood risk assessment and management from using advanced tools and datasets (System Risk_Briefing_systems_approach.pdf)


Bates, P.D. (2016). Flooding: what is normal? Science in Parliament, 73 (1), 25-26.

Barendrecht, M. H., Viglione, A., Kreibich, H., Merz, B., Vorogushyn, S. and Blöschl, G.: The Value of Empirical Data for Estimating the Parameters of a Sociohydrological Flood Risk Model, Water Resources Research, 55(2), 1312–1336, doi:10.1029/2018WR024128, 2019.

Barendrecht, M. H., Viglione, A. and Blöschl, G.: A dynamic framework for flood risk, Water Security, 1, 3–11, doi:10.1016/j.wasec.2017.02.001, 2017.

Barendrecht, M. H., Viglione, A., Kreibich, H., Vorogushyn, S., Merz, B. and Blöschl, G.: Estimating parameter values of a socio-hydrological flood model, in Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, vol. 379, pp. 193–198, Copernicus GmbH., 2018.

Barquet, K. and Cumiskey, L.: Using participatory Multi-Criteria Assessments for assessing disaster risk reduction measures, Coastal Engineering, doi:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.08.006, 2017.

Bertola, M., Viglione, A. and Blöschl, G.: Informed attribution of flood changes to decadal variation of atmospheric, catchment and river drivers in Upper Austria, Journal of Hydrology, 577, 123919, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.123919, 2019

Carisi, F., Schröter, K., Domeneghetti, A., Kreibich, H. and Castellarin, A.: Development and assessment of uni- and multivariable flood loss models for Emilia-Romagna (Italy), Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 18(7), 2057–2079, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2057-2018, 2018.

Ciullo, A., de Bruijn, K. M., Kwakkel, J. H. and Klijn, F.: Accounting for the uncertain effects of hydraulic interactions in optimising embankments heights: Proof of principle for the IJssel River, Journal of Flood Risk Management, 0(0), e12532, doi:10.1111/jfr3.12532, 2019.

Ciullo, A., De Bruijn, K. M., Kwakkel, J. H. and Klijn, F.: Systemic Flood Risk Management: The Challenge of Accounting for Hydraulic Interactions, Water, 11(12), 2530, doi:10.3390/w11122530, 2019.

Cumiskey, L., Priest, S., Valchev, N., Viavattene, C., Costas, S. and Clarke, J.: A framework to include the (inter)dependencies of Disaster Risk Reduction measures in coastal risk assessment, Coastal Engineering, doi:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.08.009, 2017.

Cumiskey, L., Priest, S., Klijn, F. and Juntti, M.: A framework to assess integration in flood risk management: implications for governance, policy, and practice, Ecology and Society, 24(4), doi:10.5751/ES-11298-240417, 2019.

Curran, A., Bruijn, K. M. D. and Kok, M.: Influence of water level duration on dike breach triggering, focusing on system behaviour hazard analyses in lowland rivers, Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards, 0(0), 1–15, doi:10.1080/17499518.2018.1542498, 2018.

Curran, A., Bruijn, K. M. D. and Kok, M.: Influence of water level duration on dike breach triggering, focusing on system behaviour hazard analyses in lowland rivers, Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards, 0(0), 1–15, doi:10.1080/17499518.2018.1542498, 2018.

Curran, A., de Bruijn, K. M., Klerk, W. J. and Kok, M.: Large Scale Flood Hazard Analysis by Including Defence Failures on the Dutch River System, Water, 11(8), 1732, doi:10.3390/w11081732, 2019.

Diederen, D., Liu, Y., Gouldby, B., Diermanse, F. and Vorogushyn, S.: Stochastic generation of spatially coherent river discharge peaks for continental event-based flood risk assessment, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 19(5), 1041–1053, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1041-2019, 2019.

Diederen, D. and Liu, Y.: Dynamic spatio-temporal generation of large-scale synthetic gridded precipitation: with improved spatial coherence of extremes, Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess, doi:10.1007/s00477-019-01724-9, 2019.

Khanal, S., Ridder, N., de Vries, H., Terink, W. and van den Hurk, B.: Storm Surge and Extreme River Discharge: A Compound Event Analysis Using Ensemble Impact Modeling, Front. Earth Sci., 7, doi:10.3389/feart.2019.00224, 2019a.

Khanal, S., Lutz, A. F., Immerzeel, W. W., Vries, H. de, Wanders, N. and Hurk, B. van den: The Impact of Meteorological and Hydrological Memory on Compound Peak Flows in the Rhine River Basin, Atmosphere, 10(4), 171, doi:10.3390/atmos10040171, 2019b.

Metin, A. D., Dung, N. V., Schröter, K., Guse, B., Apel, H., Kreibich, H., Vorogushyn, S. and Merz, B.: How do changes along the risk chain affect flood risk?, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 18(11), 3089–3108, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3089-2018, 2018.

Sairam, N., Schröter, K., Lüdtke, S., Merz, B. and Kreibich, H.: Quantifying Flood Vulnerability Reduction via Private Precaution, Earth’s Future, 7(3), 235–249, doi:10.1029/2018EF000994, 2019.

Sairam, N., Schröter, K., Rözer, V., Merz, B. and Kreibich, H.: Hierarchical Bayesian Approach for Modeling Spatiotemporal Variability in Flood Damage Processes, Water Resources Research, 55(10), 8223–8237, doi:10.1029/2019WR025068, 2019.

Shustikova, I., Domeneghetti, A., Neal, J. C., Bates, P. and Castellarin, A.: Comparing 2D capabilities of HEC-RAS and LISFLOOD-FP on complex topography, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 64(14), 1769–1782, doi:10.1080/02626667.2019.1671982, 2019.

Sosa, J., Sampson, C., Smith, A., Neal, J. and Bates, P.: A toolbox to quickly prepare flood inundation models for LISFLOOD-FP simulations, Environmental Modelling & Software, 123, 104561, doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104561, 2020.

Tavares da Costa, R., Manfreda, S., Luzzi, V., Samela, C., Mazzoli, P., Castellarin, A. and Bagli, S.: A web application for hydrogeomorphic flood hazard mapping, Environmental Modelling & Software, 118, 172–186, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.04.010, 2019.

Tavares da Costa, R., Mazzoli, P. and Bagli, S.: Limitations Posed by Free DEMs in Watershed Studies: The Case of River Tanaro in Italy, Front. Earth Sci., 7, doi:10.3389/feart.2019.00141, 2019.

Viglione, A., Merz, B., Viet Dung, N., Parajka, J., Nester, T. and Blöschl, G.: Attribution of regional flood changes based on scaling fingerprints: REGIONAL FLOOD CHANGE ATTRIBUTION: SCALING FINGERPRINTS, Water Resources Research, 52(7), 5322–5340, doi:10.1002/2016WR019036, 2016.

Volpi, E., Lazzaro, M. D., Bertola, M., Viglione, A. and Fiori, A.: Reservoir Effects on Flood Peak Discharge at the Catchment Scale, Water Resources Research, 54(11), 9623–9636, doi:10.1029/2018WR023866, 2018.

Vorogushyn, S., Bates, P. D., de Bruijn, K., Castellarin, A., Kreibich, H., Priest, S., Schröter, K., Bagli, S., Blöschl, G., Domeneghetti, A., Gouldby, B., Klijn, F., Lammersen, R., Neal, J. C., Ridder, N., Terink, W., Viavattene, C., Viglione, A., Zanardo, S. and Merz, B.: Evolutionary leap in large‐scale flood risk assessment needed, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, doi:10.1002/wat2.1266, 2017.

Online Resources

1. Hydro-geomorphic mapping approaches

* presentation slides: ESR3 HANDS-ON-WORKSHOP

* notebook file: https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1RmuzQK3HYMqOK2CndGnP4sToHGMbh7sk

2. model-based decision support under uncertainty


(please open the link, add the folder 'FloodRiskManagement_model_Rhine' to My Drive, from the folder open ipynb file)


* https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1tAAoNdiQ0VIoSvDMSGdB_r2vLOWKSpHm#offline=true&sandboxMode=true

* example input files:


System-Risk Project on Researchgate:


Online implementation of simplified tool for riverine flood hazard mapping at large scales: Demonstration web service:


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