GFZ German research centre for geo sciences


PAGER - Prediction of Adverse effects of Geomagnetic storms and Energetic Radiation

Stakeholders - such as satellite operators and manufacturers - require space weather predictions to have long lead times and confidence levels and that they should be tailored to particular engineering systems. These requirements will be addressed in the new PAGER project, led by Section 2.7 of GFZ and funded under the Horizon 2020 program.

To utilize available measurements and to address the space weather needs, we will combine state-of-the-art models covering all the way from the Solar surface to the Earth’s inner magnetosphere. We run ensembles of physics-based and machine-learning models to make predictions of the space weather conditions 1-2 days in advance. This innovative approach allows us to not only make predictions, but also to provide the relevant confidence levels. On top of that, predictive models will be blended with data by means of data assimilation.

In conjunction with researchers from GFZ, the team includes the leading academic experts in space weather from the University of Warwick (UK), the University of Michigan (USA) and the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (CZ). Our advisory board consists of the heads of the space weather prediction centres of ESA, NASA and NOAA.

Project duration

Jan 2020 – Dec 2022


The EU Research and Innovation programme Horizon 2020

Principal Investigators

  • Prof. Yuri Shprits (GFZ)
  • Prof. Tony Arber (UW)
  • Prof. Mike Liemohn (UM)
  • Prof. Ondrej Santolik (IAP)
  • Julien Forest (ART)


  • Prof. Yuri Shprits
  • Dr. Ruggero Vasile
  • Dr. Irina Zhelavskaya
  • Dr. Stefano Bianco
  • Dr. Michael Wutzig
  • Ms. Melanie Burns

Project Website


  • University of Warwick (UW), UK
  • University of Michigan (UM), USA
  • Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Czech Academy of Sciences, CZ
  • Artenum Sarl (ART), FR
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