Detection and attribution of changes in floods

Detection of changes in the frequency and/or magnitude of floods has been extensively carried out for many river basins worldwide.

However, little effort has been made so far to attribute these changes to certain drivers such as climate change, changes in land use, catchment properties, or river training. The knowledge of reasons behind observed changes is essential in order to better quantify related risks and to be able to adapt to changing flood risks or to take action to reduce them. As climate change is assumed to be a significant driver of changes in the past decades and near future, the contribution of climate change to changes in floods is of great interest. We quantify this contribution by downscaling Global Circulation Models (GCM) using weather patterns. Relating each pattern to a certain range of climate variable values allows us to employ a weather generator and create times series of climate data which can be used to run a hydrological model and quantify the effect of climate change on floods.


Profile photo of  Prof. Dr. Andreas Güntner

Prof. Dr. Andreas Güntner

Building C 4, room 2.31
14473 Potsdam
tel. +49 331 288-1559

Project information