Inhaltsbereich
MEDIS
Methods and Tools for a cost efficient flood management – improved approaches for flood loss estimation
This project aims to develop improved and transferable methods for the estimation of direct and indirect economic flood losses for all economic sectors, primarily on basis of flood loss data from recent floods in 2002, 2005 and 2006 in the Elbe- and Danube-catchment. The new methods are to be validated using official loss data, tested on transferability and applied in the framework of a sensitivity analysis at the Lockwitzbach in Dresden.
For the improvement and harmonisation of damage data collection a workshop with authorities, insurance, consultancy and scientific institutes has been organised and an expert survey following the Delphi method has been undertaken. On this basis, guidelines for the standardised collection of flood loss data are developed and a flood loss database for Germany HOWAS 21 has been constructed.
Computer-aided telephone interviews of flood affected and have been undertaken in the aftermath of the (2002), 2005 and 2006 floods in Germany. Flood loss estimation models for private households and companies (FLEMOps, FLEMOcs) have been developed and are available via a web-service. A web-based brochure for community information on flood precautionary measures is developed to support risk awareness and private precaution. This activity is undertaken together with the Rimax-project URBAS and NADINE a project of the Helmholtz association.
The results will be effective in three domains:
- science: improved, transferable methods for flood loss estimation
- water management: guidelines
- local: support of flood precaution in Dresden and other communities
© Dr. Annegret Thieken- Concept of the project MEDIS
Publications:
Kreibich, H., I. Seifert, B. Merz, A.H. Thieken: Development of FLEMOcs - A new model for the estimation of flood losses in the commercial sector. Hydrological Sciences Journal, submitted
Seifert I, Kreibich H, Merz B, Thieken AH: Application and evaluation of FLEMOcs - A flood loss estimation model for the commercial sector, Hydrological sciences journal, submitted
Elmer F, Seifert I, Kreibich H, Thieken AH (2010) A Delphi method expert survey to derive standards for flood damage data collection. Risk Analysis, 30(1): 107-124
Seifert, I., Thieken, A. H., Merz, M., Borst, D. & Werner, U. (2010) Estimation of industrial and commercial asset values for hazard risk assessment. Natural hazards 52(2), 453-479
Kreibich H, Piroth K, Seifert I, Maiwald H, Kunert U, Schwarz J, Merz B, Thieken AH (2009) Is flow velocity a significant parameter in flood damage modelling? NHESS, 9: 1679-1692
Wünsch A, Hermann U, Kreibich H, Thieken AH (2009) The Role of Disaggregation of Asset Values in Flood Loss Estimation: A Comparison of Different Modelling Approaches at the Mulde River, Germany. Environmental Management, 44 (3): 524-541
Merz B., F. Elmer, and A. H. Thieken (2009) Significance of "high probability/low damage" versus "low probability/high damage" flood events. NHESS, 9, 1033-1046
Kreibich H, Thieken AH (2009) Coping with floods in the city of Dresden, Germany. Natural Hazards, 51 (3): 423-436
Thieken, A. H., A. Olschewski, H. Kreibich, S. Kobsch and B. Merz (2008), Development and evaluation of FLEMOps – a new Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for the private sector. In: Flood Recovery Innovation and Response, WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment (ISSN: 1743-3541), WIT Press.
Förster, S., B. Kuhlmann, K.-E. Lindenschmidt, A. Bronstert (2008) Assessing flood risk for a rural detention area. NHESS, 8, 311-322
Schwarze, R.: Ökonomische Instrumente zur Stärkung der privaten Hochwasservorsorge, in: Tetzlaff, G. u.a. (Hrsg.): Wandel von Vulnerabilität und Klima, erscheint als Band der Akademie für Raumforschung und Landesplanung (ARL), Hannover.
Geldermann, J., M. Merz, V. Bertsch, M. Hiete, O. Rentz, I. Seifert, A.H. Thieken, D. Borst, U. Werner (2008): The reference installation approach for the estimation of industrial assets at risk. – European Journal of Industrial Engineering 2(1): 73-93.
Kreibich, H., M. Müller, A.H. Thieken, B. Merz (2007): Main factors influencing the economic flood damage of companies. In: Reducing the Vulnerability of Societies Against Water Related Risks at the Basin Scale – Proceedings of the 3rd IWRM, Bochum, 26-28 September 2006 (A. Schumann, M. Pahlow, Eds.). IAHS Publication 317: 384-388.
Thieken AH, Kreibich H, Müller M, Merz B (2007) Coping with floods: A survey among private households affected by the August 2002 flood in Germany. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 52(5): 1016-1037
Kreibich H, Müller M, Thieken AH, Merz B (2007) Flood precaution of companies and their ability to cope with the flood in August 2002 in Saxony, Germany, Water Resour. Res., 43: W03408, doi:10.1029/2005WR004691
Maiwald, H. (2007): Ingenieurmäßige Ermittlung von Hochwasserschadenspotentialen im mikroskaligen Maßstab. Dissertation, Fakultät Bauingenieurwesen der Bauhaus-Universität Weimar 2007.
Schwarz, J., Maiwald, H. (2007): Prognose der Bauwerksschädigung unter Hochwassereinwirkung. Bautechnik 84 (2007) 7, 450–464.
Schwarze, R., Wagner, G.G.: The Political Economy of Natural Disaster Insurance: Lessons from the Failure of a Proposed Compulsory Insurance Scheme in Germany, in: European Environment – The Journal of European Environmental Policy 17, S. 403-415, 2007.
Schwarze, R.: Gestion intégrée du risque d'inondation: optimisation économique, méthodes et pratiques en Allemagne, Séminaire sur l'application de l'analyse coûts-bénéfices aux risques naturels, 7 mars 2007, Ministère de l’Ecologie et du Développement Durable (MEDD), Paris
Schwarze, R.: Ökonomische Anreize zur Stärkung der privaten Hochwasservorsorge. In: Gerd Tetzlaff, Helmut Karl, Gerhard Overbeck (Hrsg.) Wandel von Vulnerabilität und Klima: Müssen unsere Vorsorgewerkzeuge angepasst werden? Bonn: Deutsches Komitee für Katastrophenvorsorge, S. 93-103, 2007.
Project head:
Dr.-Ing. Bruno Merz
Project coordination: Dr. Annegret Thieken
Project partner:
Dr.-Ing. Bruno Merz, Dr. Annegret Thieken, Isabel Seifert, Dr. Heidi Kreibich
Prof. Dr. Reimund Schwarze, Dr. Uwe Kunert, Dr. Dietmar Edler
Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, DIW Berlin, Königin-Luise-Str. 5, 14195 Berlin
Dr. Jochen Schwarz, André Gerstberger, Holger Maiwald
Bauhaus-Universität Weimar, Zentrum für Ingenieuranalyse von Erdbebenschäden am Institut für Konstruktiven Ingenieurbau, Marienstraße 7a, 99421 Weimar
Prof. Dr. Friedrich Kuhlmann, Bernd Kuhlmann, Dr. Bernd Weinmann
Justus-Liebig Universität Gießen, Institut für Betriebslehre der Agrar- und Ernährungswirtschaft, Senckenbergstraße 3, 35390 Gießen
Dr.-Ing. Klaus Piroth, Volker Ackermann
ARCADIS Consult GmbH, Brüsseler Straße 5, 67657 Kaiserslautern
Cooperation partner:
Jens-Olaf Seifert
Umweltamt der Stadt Dresden, Grunaer Straße 2, 01069 Dresden
Meike Müller
Deutsche Rückversicherung AG, Abt. Technik und Service, Hansaallee 177, 40549 Düsseldorf
Dr. Uwe Müller
Landestalsperrenverwaltung Sachsen, Postfach 100234, 01782 Pirna
Funding
BMBF -Förderaktivität "Risikomanagement extremer Hochwasserereignisse ( RIMAX )
Projektträger Jülich , Förderkennzeichen: 0330688
Project duration:
07/2005 - 06/2008