Topics of Section 2.1

Topics of Section 2.1

Geohazards: From process understanding to quantifying extremes
Understanding the natural processes and their interactions with human activities that may lead to disasters is a prerequisite for the design of mitigation measures. Closing the gaps in process understanding and integrating process knowledge in hazard assessment will allow funds for disaster mitigation to be allocated more efficiently, leading to a reduction in losses.
Extreme events are understood as those that are rare, or that may have grave consequences for society. Reliable quantification of extremes is therefore a particular scientific challenge. Since the observation of extremes is hampered by their rarity or singularity, process understanding is essential for hazard and risk assessment. The goal of this subtopic is to advance the methods for the quantification of the occurrence, intensity and extent of extremes due to natural phenomena such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. A thorough understanding of the natural processes that may lead to extremes improves hazard assessment, assist with the derivation of realistic worst-case scenarios and upper bounds, and helps to design adequate mitigation measures. The activities in this subtopic, therefore, cover aspects of geohazards that reach from the understanding of the processes involved to the quantification of extremes.

2. Risk dynamics: From monitoring to analysing change in risks
The risk due to natural hazards is changing dramatically because of population growth, and rising infrastructure values and vulnerability. Methods are therefore needed that allow to track these changes in risk, and to estimate possible future developments. Remote sensing, in combination with in-situ observations, statistical data analyses and simulation approaches, will play a vital part in this work.
The currently observed global trend of increasing losses due to natural disasters is driven, on the one hand, by the growing vulnerability of our societies, and on the other, by higher frequencies and intensities of climate related events. The risk due to natural extreme events has to be seen as non-stationary, and disaster mitigation must prepare itself for increasingly faster changes. In the face of this global change of risks, the scientific challenges are the detection of changes and trends in hazards and vulnerability, and the prediction of possible future developments.

3. Early warning: From critical processes to rapid disaster information
Near-real time measurements and data processing, the identification of critical situations, and the forecasting or prediction of impending disasters help to optimize crisis management. Hence, methodologies that will balance the demands for accuracy and speed will be developed, and deployed in appropriate locations for testing and modification.
Timely information and early warning have proven their capability of significantly reducing the losses due to extreme natural events. Near real-time measurements, data analysis and simulations allow to gain information that can be used to warn people at risk and disaster managers before an event, to activate protecting shutdown functions, and to provide information during a crisis situation. The basis for reliable early warning is the rapid analysis of critical processes and the identification of short-term changes that may result in critical situations and imminent threats. Tools will be developed that provide automated alarms and fast information for disaster management, decision-makers, public and media.
Near-real time measurements and data processing, the identification of critical situations, and the forecasting or prediction of impending disasters help to optimize crisis management. Hence, methodologies that will balance the demands for accuracy and speed will be developed, and deployed in appropriate locations for testing and modification.