Inhaltsbereich
SAFER
Seismic eArly warning For EuRope
SAFER an EU-project, duration: 2006 - 2009
The increasing dependence of modern society on technology and associated “lifelines” places populations at greater risk of having their safety and lifestyles compromised by large-scale natural disasters. However, this same dependence on technology also allows methodologies, tools and systems to be developed that can potentially mitigate the effects of such events. It is therefore the aim of SAFER to make use of, and expand upon, current technologies and our knowledge of the physics of earthquakes and associated phenomena to develop a range of tools and procedures that will help to reduce the consequences of earthquakes on society, within the context of the European and Mediterranean geological and social environments. As the name suggests, early warning is the critical feature of SAFER, and may be described as the timely provision of effective information (which in the case of SAFER is of the order of 10's of seconds) for the purpose of instigating mitigating actions (e.g. automatic shut down of gas lines and industrial processes, closing bridges and tunnels, etc.). The objectives of SAFER are best summarised by the work packages into which it is divided: (1) “Project Coordination and Management”, (2) “Real-Time Estimation of Source Parameters”, (3) “Real-Time Damage Assessment and Reduction Strategies”, (4) “Real-Time Shake Maps”, (5) “Real-Time Aftershock Hazard Assessment”, and (6) “Dissemination of Results and End user Interface”. GFZ is the coordinating institute (Prof. Jochen Zschau), with the co-coordinators being Prof. Paolo Gasparini of the University of Naples Federico II, and Prof. Gerassimos Papadopoulos of the National Observatory of Athens. The scientific work packages in which GFZ is largely involved are outlined below.
WP2 “Real-Time Estimation of Source Parameters”
GFZ participants: S. Parolai, D. Di Giacomo, H. Grosser.
The primary focus of WP2 is the development of rapid and robust methods of detecting and characterising earthquakes. By characterisation, one means defining an earthquake's location and magnitude, and hence determining whether or not it should be of concern. Knowledge of an earthquake's magnitude allows more accurate damage assessments to be made, which in the period immediately following an event is of crucial importance to disaster response planning. GFZ's primary contribution to this work package is the development and refinement of a magnitude scale based on the spectra of teleseismic arrivals that allow accurate and stable estimates to be provided within minutes of an event's initial detection.
WP4 "Real-Time Shake Maps"
GFZ participants: C. Milkereit (WP leader), K. Fleming, M. Sörensen, G. Grünthal, D. Stromeyer.
WP4 is concerned with developing tools for the assessment of how severe ground motion actually was during an earthquake, as well as how the ground motion varied spatially. Such information may be divided into real time "maps" that are generated during the earthquake, the so-called alert maps, and shake maps, which provide information about the spatial variation in various ground motion parameters such as Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), Peak Ground Velocity (PGV), Instrumental Intensity and Peak Spectral Accelerations, and which are intended to be issued within minutes of the end of the event.
WP5 “Real-time aftershock hazard assessment”
GFZ participants: B. Enescu, S. Hainzl, F. Roth, R. Wang, M. Sobiesiak.
The main goal of our work is to develop and test methodologies that allow for a real-time assessment of time-dependent hazard after a main shock. Aftershock hazard assessment in real-time is critical for emergency planners in the immediate aftermath of a destructive earthquake, and is one of the more important pieces of information that should be provided to the media and general public. We aim to design, implement and validate methodologies that combine the two leading approaches for real-time aftershock forecasting, involving theory based on static and dynamic stress changes and that dependent upon the mapping of the statistical properties of aftershock sequences.
