Section 2.1: "Earthquake Risk and Early Warning"

Head of Section: Prof. Dr. Jochen Zschau

Understanding the causes and workings of extreme natural events is the key element for success in reducing the effects of a natural disaster. To achieve such understanding, we investigate the fundamental phenomena which lead to earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. We have, for example, installed a network of seismic stations in Turkey to monitor the movement of the North Anatolian fault. At the same time, a group of young scientists is studying how volcanoes erupt in response to mechanical tension. We are also using the Turkish metropolis Istanbul to evaluate how uncontrolled urban development increases the exposure of a city. With innovative technologies like remote sensing, we assess changes in georisk over large areas and in near-real time.

This is the basis for our research in early warning. Its goal is to provide a warning a few minutes or seconds before an extreme natural event. In this, we are working closely with disaster managers. Together with industrial partners, we are developing instruments and methods with which, for example, it is possible to provide a warning shortly before the arrival of strong earthquake waves.

To reduce the consequences of an earthquake, it also helps to have a detailed characterization of the geologic environment on which a city has grown. We do this by assessing the local geology in microzonation projects. Using computer simulations we also investigate how seismic waves propagate and behave in certain regions. The Rhine Embayment and the Chilean capital Santiago are the areas in which we apply these studies.

We founded and operate the German Earthquake Task Force. Under its auspices our personnel has visited disaster-struck regions after strong earthquakes, time and time again. Once there, they not only record aftershocks, but they also investigate the immediate consequences of the quake together with structural engineers and social scientists. We regularly pass on the experience we have gathered to foreign scientists in international training courses.

Our research activities:
1. Geohazards: From process understanding to quantifying extremes
1.1 Physics of earthquakes
1.2 Physics of volcanic processes
1.3. Earthquake hazard assessment
1.4 Earthquake microzonation

2. Risk dynamics: From monitoring to analysing change in risks
2.1 Monitoring of environmental hazards
2.2 Vulnerability assessment and risk monitoring via remote sensing

3. Early warning: From critical processes to rapid disaster information
3.1 Earthquake Early Warning  (EWS)
3.2 German Task Force for Earthquake