Dynamic Risk Quantification

Decision Making for Development and Evaluation of Ensemble Earthquake Forecasts and Seismic Hazard/Risk Assessment
(2015-2018, Collaboration with the KAUST University)

We explore the limitations of current earthquake forecast evaluation tests and develop new evaluation methods that allow for multiple forecasts to be combined into ensemble models. The resulting ensemble forecasts will be used to regularly update seismic hazard calculations, as well as evaluate current ground motion calculation methods and their concomitant parameter uncertainties.