Seismic Hazard- and Risk Dynamics
Subproject B3 of PROGRESS

Project duration: 2010-2014
PI: Dr. Sebastian Hainzl (GFZ) PD Dr. Gert Zöller (UP)
Project employee: Christoph Bach, Dr. Massimiliano Pittore

Further involved scientists:
Prof. Dr. Jochen Zschau (GFZ)
Dr. Stefano Parolai (GFZ)
Prof. Dr. Matthias Holschneider (UP)
Prof. Dr. Frank Scherbaum (UP)

Realistic models of seismicity serve as an essential ingredient for the calculation of ground movement and finally the seismic risk. The aim of this project is the monitoring of the currently observed dramatic changes of seismic risk and the derivation of reliable predictions for the future. Important data can be obtained from aftershock studies in order to improve by means of dynamic risk analysis our capability for aftershock hazard and risk assessment. Moreover, the potential of remote sensing for the monitoring of the vulnerability of buildings will be evaluated. A methodology for combining remote sensing data calibrated by ground observations will be developed for an integrated risk monitoring of rapidly growing urban regions. The activities are designed with the regional focus on Central Asia, where the GFZ set up a cross-border earthquake-monitoring system and where a partnership for cross-border earthquake risk analysis has recently begun in the context of the global public-private initiative (GEM: Global Earthquake Model). The combination of mathematical modeling with geophysical hazard and risk analysis based on seismic and remote sensing data (as the essential characteristic of this theme) is well integrated in the overall target of the PROGRESS project.